I must write up the wonderful Saturday that I had with Industry Figure Larry Helmerich, but this is…well, easier, and I really laughed at the metaphor:
Here, ladies and gentlemen, is the crux of the problem: We are reliably informed that whatever part of the economic crisis can’t be pinned on Wall Street — or on mortgage-related financial insanity — can be pinned on consumers who overspent. But personal consumption amounts to some 70 percent of the American economy. So if we don’t spend, we don’t recover. Fiscal health isn’t possible until money is again sloshing into cash registers, including those at this mall and every other retailer.
In other words, shopping was part of the problem and now it’s part of the cure. And once we’re cured, economists report, we really need to learn how to save, which suggests that we will need to quit shopping again.
So the mall we married has become the toxic spouse we can’t quit, though we really must quit, but just not any time soon. The mall, for its part, is wounded by our ambivalence and feels financially adrift.
Read the Full Story at the New York Times (while they’re still a going concern!)
“Our Love Affair With Malls Is On The Rocks”
January 31, 2009
…Indeed, one of the great social benefits of the Madoff scandal may be to finally reveal the S.E.C. for what it has become.
Created to protect investors from financial predators, the commission has somehow evolved into a mechanism for protecting financial predators with political clout from investors. (The task it has performed most diligently during this crisis has been to question, intimidate and impose rules on short-sellers — the only market players who have a financial incentive to expose fraud and abuse.)
…and this one:
And here’s the most incredible thing of all: 18 months into the most spectacular man-made financial calamity in modern experience, nothing has been done to change that, or any of the other bad incentives that led us here in the first place.
Read the full story in the New York Times
“The End of the Financial World as We Know It”
January 3, 2009
About the authors: Michael Lewis, a contributing editor at Vanity Fair and the author of “Liar’s Poker,” is writing a book about the collapse of Wall Street. David Einhorn is the president of Greenlight Capital, a hedge fund, and the author of “Fooling Some of the People All of the Time.”
The blogger Tanta, an influential voice on the mortgage collapse, died Sunday morning in Columbus, Ohio.
Tanta, who wrote for Calculated Risk, a finance and economics blog, was a pseudonym for Doris Dungey, 47, who until recently had lived in Upper Marlboro, Md. The cause of death was ovarian cancer, her sister, Cathy Stickelmaier, said.
Tanta used her extensive knowledge of the loan industry to comment, castigate and above all instruct. Her fans ranged from the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times who cited her in his blog, to analysts at the Federal Reserve, who cited her in a paper on “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit.”
Read the Calculated Risk post about Tanta’s passing.
See an earlier post that featured Tanta in her heydey.
Christopher Thornberg, the most bearish of the housing experts quoted in the Los Angeles Times earlier this year (predicting in March that Southern California home prices would eventually fall 40% from their peaks), now expects that prices will keep dropping throughout 2009, until they’ve fallen 55% from their peak.
Even I found that a sobering estimate.
That would mean that the median Southern California home price will have done this:
$505,000 (top $) July 2007
$300,000 (-41%) October 2008
$227,250 (-55%) Eventual Bottom
There’s also a table, showing various regions in Southern California, and along with sales and price figures compared to a year ago.
Read the full story in the Los Angeles Times
“Price of Southern California homes falls 41% from peak”
November 19, 2008
I’m the Chief Financial Officer for Barack Obama’s campaign. I track the donations coming in and the expenses going out.
I asked for the opportunity to write to you directly so that I could try to explain what’s happening right now.
This organization has thousands of employees and spends millions of dollars a day — and at the moment we’re doing it without a safety net.
Our spending plans have been stretched by John McCain’s negative attacks and the overwhelming resources of the Republican National Committee.
As of October 15th, John McCain and the RNC together had nearly $20 million more in cash than the combined total of Obama for America and the DNC. And just this week, we’re facing new and unexpected spending against us in Montana and West Virginia.
Your incredible generosity has gotten us this far. But right now we need your help more than ever to get this campaign across the finish line.
Please donate $100 or whatever you can afford right now:
US mortgage rates have soared this week in an unexpected reaction to the latest Treasury financial rescue plan, which has prompted investors to buy bank debt and sell bonds backed by home loans.
Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, as measured by Bankrate.com, rose to 6.38 per cent on Thursday from 5.87 per cent last week – before the Treasury said on Tuesday that it would take equity stakes in banks and guarantee new bank debt.
Investors responded to the new guarantee by buying existing bank debt, reckoning it could be refinanced with the new government-supported bonds. As they did so, they sold lower-yielding paper issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies put into government conservatorship last month.
The sales of Fannie and Freddie paper pushed up yields on their debt, which is backed by mortgages. This, in turn, pushed mortgage rates to levels not seen since the government took over Fannie and Freddie on September 7.
Fannie and Freddie had been taken into conservatorship by their regulator to help keep mortgage rates low and – it was hoped – revive the housing market.
However, the opposite is now happening, making it more difficult for struggling homeowners to refinance their mortgages and for prospective homebuyers to get financing.
As a result, house prices may fall further before they find a bottom.
Oh yeah, baby — will they ever.
Read the Full Story in the Financial Times:
“Treasury plan pushes up US mortgage rates”